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Oil and gas: production, refining and revenue

A small share of output but the main source of export earnings and federal revenue. Output recovered to 1.72 million barrels a day in Q2 2026.

Key figures

Oil and gas in numbers

Latest official figures. Shares and growth are in real terms (2019 prices) unless marked nominal.

1.72m bpdAverage crude output, Q2 20261.68m in Q2 2025; 1.55m in Q1 2026 (NBS)

4.16%Oil sector, share of real GDPQ2 2026; 4.05% a year earlier

+7.31%Oil sector real growth, Q2 2026+20.46% in Q2 2025

+8.50%Oil sector real growth, 2025+5.54% in 2024

+43.94%Oil refining, real growthQ2 2026, the second-fastest-growing activity

95.84%Non-oil share of real GDPQ2 2026

Growth against the economy

Oil and gas, Q2 2026+7.31%

Whole economy, Q2 2026+4.43%

Crude oil production, million barrels a day (US EIA)

Source: US Energy Information Administration, via TheGlobalEconomy · 2018–2025 Data table Download CSV Excel

Analysis

What drives the sector

Crude prices

Brent prices set export earnings, government revenue and dollar supply to the FX market.

Pipeline security

Theft and vandalism on the main trunk lines have been the biggest constraint on output.

Investment

New upstream spending follows licensing rounds, divestments by international oil companies and the Petroleum Industry Act 2021.

Domestic refining

Local refineries, led by the 650,000-barrel-a-day Dangote refinery, reduce fuel imports and demand for dollars.

Who is who

Regulators and main players

NUPRC

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission regulates exploration and production.

NMDPRA

The Midstream and Downstream regulator covers refining, gas processing, pipelines and fuel retail.

NNPC Ltd

The national oil company, a partner in most joint ventures.

Independent and international producers

A growing share of output comes from Nigerian independents after onshore divestments.

Outlook

What to watch

We do not publish forecasts. These are the signals we follow for this sector.

Monthly output

NUPRC publishes daily average production each month; compare it with Nigeria's OPEC+ quota.

Brent price

Compare with the budget benchmark; a gap below it widens the deficit.

Fuel prices

Pump prices since the end of the subsidy reflect crude prices, the naira and local refining.

Gas

Gas supply is the main fuel for power plants and a growing export.

Sources