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Trade: wholesale and retail
The largest single activity in the economy, from open markets to supermarkets and distributors. Its growth tracks household spending.
Trade in numbers
Latest official figures. Shares and growth are in real terms (2019 prices) unless marked nominal.
Growth against the economy
What drives the sector
Household spending
Real incomes, squeezed by inflation, set how much people buy.
Prices and the naira
Imported goods and transport costs pass straight into shelf prices.
Logistics
Road quality, fuel costs and checkpoints raise the cost of moving goods.
Informality
Much of trade is informal, which keeps barriers to entry low but limits access to credit.
Regulators and main players
Open markets and traders' associations
The backbone of distribution in every city.
Modern retail and e-commerce
Supermarket chains, distributors and online marketplaces.
Nigeria Customs Service
Import duties, levies and border procedures.
Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission
Pricing, competition and consumer rights.
What to watch
We do not publish forecasts. These are the signals we follow for this sector.
Inflation
Falling inflation is the quickest route to stronger real trade growth.
Import duties and bans
Changes to tariffs and import lists move prices fast.
AfCFTA
Lower tariffs within Africa for traders who meet the rules of origin.
Digital payments
POS agents and transfers have changed how informal traders sell.
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