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Industries · Electricity and power

Electricity and power: generation, grid and tariffs

The weakest activity in Q2 2026. Grid output averages about 4,000 megawatts for a country of more than 200 million people.

Key figures

Electricity and power in numbers

Latest official figures. Shares and growth are in real terms (2019 prices) unless marked nominal.

−10.63%Electricity, real growth, Q2 2026−15.30% in Q1 2026
4,089MWAverage grid generation, September 2026NERC
5,038MWAverage available capacity, September 202681% of it was used
49.43HzAverage lower grid frequency, September 2026Below the 49.75Hz limit

Growth against the economy

Electricity and power, Q2 2026−10.63%
Whole economy, Q2 2026+4.43%
Analysis

What drives the sector

Gas supply

Most plants run on gas; supply interruptions and unpaid gas bills cut output.

Transmission

The grid cannot always carry what plants can generate.

Liquidity

Distribution companies collect less than the cost of supply, leaving debts across the chain.

Tariffs

Cost-reflective tariffs for Band A customers since 2024; other bands remain below cost.

Who is who

Regulators and main players

NERC

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission sets tariffs and licenses operators.

Transmission Company of Nigeria and the system operator

Run the national grid.

Generation and distribution companies

Private operators since the 2013 privatisation.

State regulators

The Electricity Act 2023 lets states regulate their own electricity markets.

Outlook

What to watch

We do not publish forecasts. These are the signals we follow for this sector.

Monthly NERC data

Generation, available capacity, collections and grid disturbances.

Tariff reviews

Changes to Band A and other bands.

State markets

States taking over regulation under the 2023 Act.

Off-grid solar

Mini-grids and rooftop solar are filling the gap for many firms and homes.

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